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| PHÎÒÎ: UNIAN |
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine have always been politically charged. The choice is pretty narrow: the targets are either overstated in order to placate the voter or understated in order to show that the set tasks have been over-fulfilled
Depending on what macroeconomic indicators are envisaged this time around, one can presume that in 2010 the second variant will be employed. GDP growth of 3.7%, industrial growth of 5.3% and anticipated inflation of 13.1% are all factored into the budget (December on December). So far, this plan is being fulfilled quite successfully. Indeed, according to the State Statistics Committee, GDP in Q1 2010 was 4.8%, industrial production increased in the period January-April by 12.6% and inflation the first quarter reached 4.4% (in April there was overall deflation of 0.3%).
For this reason, independent experts consider the planned indicators to be slightly understated. Even the NBU says that GDP growth will be no higher than 4%. Everyone will boast about this, but the main curators are Premier Mykola Azarov and First Vice Premier Andriy Klyuyev. For the past two months they have been building up their future laurels by announcing the main economic tasks of the country for this year.
If responsibility for the fulfillment of macro indicators lies on the shoulders of the government, making such forecasts is the prerogative of the Ministry of Economy. The divergence between political and economic forecasts cost many vice ministers of the economy their jobs. This is why they seek another occupation (and another source of income) such as distribution of quotas, setting indicative prices, fostering business development through trade and economic missions, etc.
The new minister also has a favorite pastime: state purchases. He devoted his first months of work to reviving an analog of the scrapped Tender Chamber.
For starters, Vasyl Tsushko has new first deputy – Volodymyr Bandurov. Both of them climbed the political ladder on Communist Party promoted by the former head of the Tender Chamber Oleksandr Tkachenko. Following in the footsteps of the deputy minister, another dozen former employees of the abolished body appeared in the ministry’s top-level management. In April those interested in participating in tenders were sent explanations of the Ministry of Economy according to which entrepreneurs should pay for a document certifying the correspondence of a proposed price to real market value. Of course, within two weeks these explanations were immediately recalled. Then the ministry submitted for review a bill “On the State Procurements” to the Cabinet of Ministers. According to the bill, there is a proposal to form the State Procurement Agency under the Ministry of Economy that will be assigned the functions of regulation, oversight and coordination in the sphere of state purchases. The financial benefit of such an initiative is clear – the submission of a tender bid to the agency will cost 100 non-taxable minimums (the equivalent of UAH 1,700) or 1% of the purchase price.
Be that as it may, all these initiatives raised such a stink that at the beginning of May Tsushko fired practically all his subordinates in connection with the liquidation of the Tender Chamber and his deputy who signed clarifications in April. After that, as rumor has it, Tsushko has a serious tiff with yet another former head of the chamber Anton Yatsenko.
In the throes of the “tender wars” the minister did not even notice how he gave up several functions of the ministry without a fight.
Specifically, in the middle of April the president issued Decree No. 522 assigning the Ministry of Internal Affairs to establish diplomatic representative offices of Ukraine abroad on economic issues.
In connection with this, trade and economic missions abroad subordinated to the Ministry of Economy since 1994 will be liquidated.
At the same time, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy proposed to assume the right to issue licenses for the import of sugar cane from the Economy Ministry as the latter is incapable of forecasting (by April 1 the quota was used up by 96%) or setting such quotas (strangely enough, licenses were issued to two unknown companies). And upon his initiative the minister of economy sharply criticized Azarov. In light of this, one can presume that the prospects of Tsushko holding onto his job are not too bright.
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