1. Parliamentary elections: the mystery of the single mandate
Ten months remain until the next parliamentary elections in Ukraine, over which time the country can expect to hear a range of promises by politicians on television and read them on billboards. Moreover, thanks to the reinstatement of the first-past-the-post system of voting, candidates seeking a seat in parliament will begin directly handing out food to bribe the poor, making superficial repairs to residential buildings in their ridings, and cleaning up grounds.
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| PHÎÒÎ: AP |
But, or course, this is all song and dance, since it is the deals cut inside the corridors of power, whether inside the ruling parties or between them and the opposition forces, that reap the much greater benefits than the actual ballot. Part of this circus will be the inevitable mud-slinging and nasty attempts to discredit one candidate or party or another, but the electorate should also witness at number of technical political projects, which should sprout up over the course of the year like mushrooms after an autumn rain. In the single mandate ridings, the ruling authorities can send their own technical candidates in the guise of competition. Voters will have to witnesses a sociological war, in which they will be told how the popularity of one or another candidate is rising or falling. Of course, the ruling party will make every effort to gain the maximum number of loyal MPs in the next parliament, despite the sagging popularity. Meanwhile, judging from whom the ruling party is planning to send to run in the ridings - according to the list of the candidates for Kyiv council nominated by the Presidential Administration - their cadre reserve list is far too short. Hence, whole arsenal of possible and impossible tools from administrative pressure down to massive mudslinging will be employed to the hilt.
The question is to what extent the voter is prepared to fool themselves by giving his trust to the candidates of the ruling party and their political allies? This also applies to the opposition, which has thus far not developed a mechanism for counteracting the emergence of the dummy deputies. For this reason, the people may once again see a legislature they did not vote for, which will further distance the ruling elite from the masses.
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| PHÎÒÎ: PHL |
2. Prospects of a unified opposition: still fragile
Last year the leaders of Ukraine’s opposition parties began negotiating so that their representatives would not compete against each other in single mandate ridings. Although the concept in theory is sound, it cannot be said that it is wholly rational. The fact is that the experience of negotiations of the opposition in Ukraine is, for the most part, quite sad: from the Kaniv Four frail gentleman’s agreement of the socialist Moroz, agrarian populist Tkachenko, ex-KGB chief Marchuk, and centrist Oliynyk before the 1996 presidential election down to the nasty squabbles and mutual accusations of betrayal. Today, the opposition camp is likely rife with internal divisions while the points of contact are hardly discernable, with the exception of its common slogan – “Free Tymoshenko and Lutsenko from jail.” So, what will be the fate of the opposition this year? Well, everything depends on the quality of leadership, who can draw the rank-and-file opposition to their banners and thereby win a seat in parliament. So far, Front of Changes party leader, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, leads the pack. After former premier Yulia Tymoshenko was jailed last autumn, politicians who had stood little chance of entering parliament immediately flocked around Yatsenyuk. Also, the centrifugal internal party processes now evident in Tymoshenko’s political organization, Batkivshchyna, now headed by her lieutenant Oleksandr Turchynov, may result in the party losing its role as the main opposition force. The rating of Batkivshchyna will depend on the degree its current leaders are prepared to cease bickering.” As for Tymoshenko, she expressed her opinions about the processes of unification of the opposition in a letter she wrote while in jail, but they were dismissed by political analysts as utopian.
This year, the opposition must not only pull out all the stops on the campaign trail, but also change the situation inside its own camp. They have to understand that the voter needs to see new faces rather than struggle of individuals for a mandate that will allow them to safely lambaste the government for another five years. Moreover, if instead of common party lists in at least 40-50 ridings voters see opposition honchos fighting one another under the approving gaze of the ruling party, the next elections will be the opposition’ last.
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3. Kyiv mayoral elections: placeman or boxer?
The government is planning to hold elections for a new Kyiv mayor in July. The reason for the timing is crystal clear: residents of the capital should be relaxing by the seaside or hoeing their gardens at their dachas at this time. A low turnout should guarantee victory for the unofficial ruler of Kyiv and government favorite Oleksandr Popov, who is already promoting himself for the post.
However, for Popov a mighty big wrench is waiting to be thrown into the works. World heavyweight boxing champion and local entrepreneur Vitaliy Klitschko could play a key role in the campaign. The local media has written that the Presidential Administration has promised Klitschko’s pocket party UDAR (which means “a hard blow”) seats in parliament in exchange for him refusing to run for Kyiv mayor. The word on the street is that Klitschko turned down the offer. However, this does not mean that his current popularity ratings will guarantee him victory and the mayoralty.
It should be noted that the mayoral elections in Kyiv should serve as a practice for political tactics to be applied during the parliamentary elections. The internal battle between opposition forces likely will be one of these tactics, and Klitschko, who has much experience in not winning the mayor’s seat because of a poorly developed campaign, should seriously think about whether he is prepared or has the strength to establish a new authority in Kyiv.
Political analysts believe that if the government uses black PR during the Kyiv mayoral elections, the ruling Party of Regions will apply these same methods to win seats in parliament and could elevate Klitschko to a higher political level. However, the question remains whether or not he can take advantage of this opportunity and try to change the status quo.
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| PHÎÒÎ: AP |
4. Russian presidential race: cold northern wind
The impending presidential election in Russia will undoubtedly have an impact on the political situation in Ukraine. As it stands now, the Russian electorate has only one choice – return Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin has concisely defined its position regarding Ukraine: the latter should join the interstate institutions controlled by Russia and surrender its gas transit grid (GTG). The future of Ukraine will therefore depend on the degree to which the country’s leadership, which has hit a dead end in its dealings with the opposition and continues to drag its feet regarding the association agreement with the European Union, is prepared to surrender national assets to Russia.
The most recent course of events has shown Putin and Yanukovych are getting increasingly at odds. In any case, the recent failure in natural gas talks suggests that staking on any lenience shown by the Kremlin towards the Ukrainian leadership after the latter voluntarily rejected association with the EU has backfired. Furthermore, political analysts say that the next wave of cooling of Ukrainian-Russian relations could play into the hands of either the Presidential Administration in Kyiv or the Kremlin. Russia will once again deride “Ukrainian rednecks siphoning gas” as Ukrainian media will picture the country’s leaders as big patriots.
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5. EURO 2012 football tournament: failing to be European
The European football championship has given Ukraine the opportunity not only to build new stadiums, repave roads and rebuild airports, but also to grow closer to the European family. The Ukrainian leadership has more or less fulfilled the first task, which it should be touting for the entire year. As for the second opportunity, the government has not quite fully get it. As Party of Regions lawmaker Volodymyr Makeyenko said, “The Euro? What the heck did we need it for?!” Indeed, every agreement Europe was prepared to sign with Ukraine has been shelved indefinitely, so the whole election campaign based on the success of preparations for and hosting of the championship will ring hollow. At the same time, EURO 2012 will most definitely change Ukraine and Ukrainians for the better. Unlike the government, their mentality converted to European long ago...
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