The announcement of the victory of Viktor Yanukovych in the second round of the elections by the Central Election Commission was not an reason for celebration in the ranks of the Party of Regions. Unlike Viktor Yushchenko, who in 2005 gained full powers plus the trust of the people, Yanukovych came to power but basically without any authority.
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On the one hand, the government is headed by Yulia Tymoshenko, on the other is the absence of a parliamentary majority and constant internal dissension inside the party. As a result, in the nearest days Yanukovych may end up facing a choice: conceding to Tymoshenko by agreeing to limited powers of the president or heading for snap parliamentary elections and inherit a parliament that is even more uncontrollable
Five breads…
Not yet having taken office Yanukovych and his team have created all the grounds needed to form a powerful opposition. “Forming a coalition that will dismiss Tymoshenko and find a new premier at first glance seemed very straightforward. But poorly thought out statements, for example those by Kolesnikov, did the damage,” says unaffiliated MP Taras Chornovil.
According to information Weekly.ua possesses, Hanna Herman and Borys Kolesnikov turned about to be totally unproductive negotiators that conducted themselves harshly and without compromise, which did not bring any positive results. Besides, the talks were held on the backdrop of a series of public statements of the PoR members on the status of the Russian language and the future of the Black Sea fleet, which also did not stimulate the diehard nationalists. “The regionals learned much to their amazement that ideological motives can be important for representatives of the OU-PSD,” says OU-PSD member Oles Doniy. “Yes, and the appetites of OU-PSD members would be enough for two Cabinets,” he argues. But the Party of Regions clearly is not interested in sharing posts. There are not enough paying positions for their own members. Several individuals interested in occupying the premier’s seat were named: Azarov, Kolesnikov, Boiko and Tihipko (as a creation of Akhmetov).
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Against whom shalt we team up?
The unification of vacillating representatives of the acting coalition with beaten BYT members (mind you, they have not surrendered) is the result of the strong pressure on the part of the PoR. A significant number of players on the political spectrum began searching within by trying to unite with the BYT, not by cutting a deal with the winning party. Indeed, the struggle for power and influence inside the PoR (the group made up of Yanukovych, Akhmetov, Firtash and others) has reached such a point that the rest of Ukraine’s political head honchos apparently no longer take the PoR seriously as it is unclear who in the party has the authority to cut deals with rival parties. In addition, it turns out that Viktor Baloha, who controls a very significant pool in the OU-PSD and is seemingly ready to fall into the hands of the PoR is also in no hurry to join a new parliamentary majority. Meanwhile, the votes of the Lytvyn Bloc will not guarantee the members of the PoR a new coalition in the PoR+LB+CPU format with 219 members. It also may turn out that as soon as the PoR decides to sack Tymoshenko as the head of the Cabinet, it may not have enough votes. It seems as though the PoR is preparing for such a course of events. The postponement of local elections that was decided on February 16 is probably destined to neutralize the BYT at the local level and Tihipko’s party Strong Ukraine, which is gaining strength. “The postponement was imperative for the regionals in order that they reinforce their own power,” MP Stepan Davymukha, BYT, admitted.
Status quo
Tymoshenko has fairly high chances of holding on to her seat as premier until this fall. “Removing her from this post can only be done by extreme methods – either by abrogating constitutional reform or by force. But this is unrealistic, MP Chornovil is convinced. Even if weighty, yet provisional arguments are found and Tymoshenko is relegated to serve as acting premier, this will no radically change the political landscape. The country will be marred by a confrontation between structures controlled by the president and the premier,” says Viktor Nebozhenko, the President of the Ukrainian Barometer sociological service.
Tymoshenko’s task is to force Yanukovych to sit down at the bargaining table on terms that are in her favor, namely that the president agreement to his new status with limited powers. “By the fall either Yanukovych’s variant of ‘Yanukovych as president’, Tymoshenko as premier” will be passed into law, or a PoR-BYT coalition will be formed,” Chornovil is convinced. Otherwise, snap parliamentary elections will be held, a scenario that is totally unfavorable to both the BYT and the PoR, despite the bold statements made by Borys Kolesnikov of his readiness for them. The PoR understands that the quicker the elections to the parliament are held, the greater the chances are that Tihipko and his Strong Ukraine party to gather a significant number of votes in the stronghold of the PoR - the eastern part of the country.
For the BYT snap parliamentary elections could be a considerable loss on the political scales and result in an even greater imbalance of control over the parliament. This is precisely why snap elections are not in the best interests of Tymoshenko.
Meanwhile, the socio-economic situation may get even more complicated by the fall, financial problems will grow (here the IMF, which earlier helped Ukraine deal with its hardships, is not likely to agree to cooperate with the country) and the negative baggage of the government will become even heavier. And the young political tigers like Tihipko and Yatsenyuk, as well as Yushchenko, who are capable of occupying the vacated national-patriotic niche, can build up some muscle and considerably eat into the BYT electorate (see table). And this means that the country’s main political forces share common problems and there is only one solution – to unite.
MP Vasyl Khara PoR
I do not see the possibility of parliamentary elections being held this fall. The country does not have the resources. Let’s play the old children’s game “If I were da boss”. I would declare an emergency economic situation, propose forming a majority in the parliament (let there be some violations of the Constitution in extreme conditions), appoint a government, develop an anti-crisis program (in Ukraine we know not only how to develop them, but also how to implement them; this was proven in 2006) and begin dealing with the economy. When we pull the country out of the downswing, then we can concentrate on the rest.
Anatoliy Halchynskiy
the Institute of World Economy and International Relations
I am being optimistic about the potential of our economy, which is why I am not about to bury the hryvnia due to the current political instability. It will grow stronger. I know the situation with the national debt, but I think this matter will be resolved. In 1994 when I came to work for the Presidential Administration the situation was much worse, albeit restructurization and foreign investments helped. I am not being overly pessimistic, too. Everything will depend on how constructive the policy will be, e.g. populists should not don’t get into the government and we don’t again end up in the throes of an election race. If a parliamentary majority and a government are formed in the near future, there is a ray of hope for the economy. Depositary policy and the currency exchange rate depend on the political situation pretty much. If the political climate in Ukraine improves by the end of the month, then correct me if I’m wrong, but I am confident the economy begins to show strong signs of recovery. In this regard I knmistaken. You can simply call it an old codger’s hunch.
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