Even in the rank of premier, Tymoshenko would not turn down the opportunity and pleasure of playing “the opposition”. She managed to do so during the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko and it brought her dividends.
Now Viktor Yanukovych will have to work out on a “speed bag”. Weekly.ua analyzed the main strategies the premier can exploit to discredit the president-elect
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Fight to the death
The most realistic perspective for Tymoshenko is serving as acting premier until this fall. This will afford Tymoshenko the opportunity to throw Yanukovych some upper-cuts, hooks and even kicks.
On another note, who’s going to pay attention to the court ruling that deemed Yanukovych’s purchase of a mansion in Mizhhirya entirely legitimate? Tymoshenko said in the media that Yanukovych may have stolen this property. Information flashed on a website that Yanukovych had allegedly beat up one of his sisters-in-arm is testimony that mudslinging will be even more ruinous.
In short, the average Ukrainian citizen will be offered a horrific cocktail aptly called “bribe-taker and rapist” and new information will be publicized about the pilfering of state property in Crimea and the Carpathians and assault and battery of individuals in Yanukovych’s tightest inner circles.
Besides that, Tymoshenko’s ace up her sleeve is solid relations with both Europe and Russia. This means that the IMF and Gasprom will be tuned to her as the premier rather than the new president. Yanukovych would be wise to heed the words of Rinat Akhmetov on the day of the elections: “Promises were made and you are well aware that the election campaign begins tomorrow. I feel the elections are over and the real election campaign is just getting under way. This is where the newly elected president should take responsibility and lead our country and economy to a qualitatively new level.”
Yanukovych is well-advised to recall these words as rumors are going around that Akhmetov and Tymoshenko have solidified their relations and the president-elect will not have a better hand to beat such a powerful trump card. We should also not discard the fact that the leader of the Regions is inclined to rest on his laurels. Meanwhile, Tymoshenko will capitalize on this moment of idleness to create a situation in the country in which she can raise the issue of the president’s impeachment. To do this several technologies will be simultaneously applied.
Judicial system
Court hearings are as imperative for Ukrainian elections as an aperitif before a hearty meal. On the backdrop of court trials, which will not necessarily be protracted, Tymoshenko’s team will drive into the consciousness of Ukrainian voters that the victory of the president-elect was not exactly legitimate. Court trials will be used to warm up the audience and on this stage it is most important for Tymoshenko to show that the “tsar is a fake” and that she is a feeble woman once again wounded by strong and boorish men.
According to information of sources in the BYT, the premier’s team plans to initiate court hearings in the Top Appellate Court to annul the results of the elections in separate voting districts in eastern regions of the country. The fact is there were plenty of cases in which 102% of the electorate voted for Yanukovych, while according to the law the number of ballots can exceed the number of voters by 10%.
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Parallel to these proceedings a campaign about “dirty elections” will be aired on TV and the idiom “they stole the electoral victory from the premier” will be formulated in public opinion.
This time shenanigans with Lady Justice will not have as serious an impact as they did five years ago. As the proverb goes, “No man can step into the same river twice, as the river is not the same and the man is not the same”. However, the background for the appeal to justice will be created to fit Tymoshenko’s needs based on the premise that Yanukovych is an illegitimate guarantor of the Constitution. According to political spin doctors, all attempts of the new president to dissolve the parliament should elicit the disapproval of society.
Parliamentary pandemonium
By the way, the PoR abandoned the idea of holding snap parliamentary elections simultaneously with local elections scheduled for May 30. The new government simply will not be able to meet this deadline, neither according to the law nor common sense.
By the way, if this were to happen Tymoshenko would show impressive results in such elections. Recall that being in the opposition is most comfortable for Tymoshenko. The most striking example of this is the results of the last snap parliamentary elections on September 30, 2007, when the BYT won 156 mandates or 27 more than in 2006 under her government.
The current parliament also has the power to strip Tymoshenko of her premier post, but no more. She will become the acting premier and finding a new head of the Cabinet without a new parliamentary coalition is simply impossible. In other words, Yanukovych will have to go through a lot of trials and tribulations to achieve his goal. First he must find a new coalition and then choose a premier from his team. But in this power struggle time is on Tymoshenko’s side and the customary confusion and dissension in parliament will continue and impede Yanukovych from carrying out his economic policy. The PoR will only be able to outbid deputies from the existing coalition according to the situation, while Tymoshenko try to “put her house in order”. In this regard, Tymoshenko’s prospects are much brighter as her managerial skills are much stronger than those of Yanukovych.
Yulia Tymoshenko’s ups and downs
Prehistoric era
1984–1988 Planning Engineer at the Lenin Dnipropetrovsk Machine-building Plant
1988 Starts up her own business (a network of video shops in Dnipropetrovsk)
1989–1991 Marketing Director at the Terminal Youth Center in Dnipropetrovsk
Fuel and energy era
1991 General Manager of Ukrainskiy Benzin Corporation (UBC)
1995 UBC is transformed into United Energy Systems of Ukraine (UESU)
Political era
January 1997 Wins in the elections to the VR
September 1997 First Deputy Chair of the Hromada All-Ukrainian Union
1998 Elected as an MP for the second time
1999 Leader of the Batkivshchyna All-Ukrainian Union, leaves parliament to become a member of Yushchenko’s Cabinet of Ministers
February 2001 Tymoshenko dismissed from the post of vice premier on fuel and energy issues, Prosecutor General’s Office accuses her of forgery and smuggling. She spent over a month in the Lukyanivkskiy pre-trial holding cell
2002 Elected to the VR for the third time. One of the organizers of the Ukraine without Kuchma mass protest campaign
February – Premier of Ukraine.
September 2005 Dismissed after conflicts with the closest inner circles of President Yushchenko
2007 BYT becomes one of the winners in the snap parlia mentary elections. Tymoshenko re-appointed as premier
Tymoshenko’s levers of influence
The Supreme Court of Ukraine
Head of the SCU Vasyl Onopenko is in the sphere of influence of Tymoshenko and in the first stage of her struggle court hearings will be a big plus for Tymoshenko in upcoming victories
Parliamentary majority
The formally existing coalition is not likely to allow the dismissal of the current premier. Even if this does happen Tymoshenko will remain the provisional acting premier. Outbidding members of Our Ukraine will be no easy task, as they have a strong instinct of self-preservation and to this day remember the fate of Oleksandr Moroz after he jumped ship to the Party of Regions
International authority
The positive attitude towards Tymoshenko in European countries and in Russia is incomparably higher than it is towards Yanukovych. The leader of the PoR does not have the personal or command resources to attain a similar level
Human resources
A branched out network of representative offices in the regions. Well-organized and disciplined associates of Tymoshenko may sabotage the directives of the central authorities under Yanukovych and support the reputation of their leader in the provinces
Personal charisma
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