At the moment, many experts say it is possible that the gap between the two candidates in the second round of the elections will be insignificant. Therefore, each party is tempted to falsify the results. To what extent is this possible?

Photo: UNIAN

V. H. I will tell you about the plan drafted in the Cabinet of Ministers with the participation of Turchynov, Deputy Minister of the Cabinet Chebotar, the leadership of the Ministry of Finance and the supposedly new director of the Ukraina printing house Volodymyr Khomko.

There was a meeting at which a series of primary tasks in the context of preparations for the second round of elections was defined. The first task was set for the leadership of the Ministry of Finance to replace the director of the Ukraina printing house that has been commissioned to print voting ballots for the second round of the elections. The second task was set for Khomko to print an additional 1.5 mn ballots, 500,000 of which will be shipped to Central and Western Ukraine. The remaining million would simply be distributed in the streets of cities and villages in Eastern Ukraine. This should not have been done during the ballot, but at around 5 am before the voting booths opened and around 8-9 pm when it is already dark. Meanwhile, the police, prosecutor´s office and the SBU were to collect the ballots in the streets. Nobody would be concerned that the numbers of these ballots did not correspond to real figures. Somebody was only interested in the availability of additional ballots.

 Was the purpose of this was to declare the results of voting in particular election districts null and void?

V. H. Yes. An analysis shows that Tymoshenko currently lacks 2.5 mn ballots, which means that around one million must be added in the central and western parts of the country. What´s most important is that turnout and these provocations will reduce the number of ballots by 1.5 million in the east of Ukraine. This way Tymoshenko will win an additional 2.5 million votes. This begs the question why would one initiate a change of management at the Ukraina printing house, which clearly fulfilled the state order and met the deadline for the printing of voting ballots, between the first and second rounds of the elections. Moreover, international organizations noted the timely work of Ukraina.

 Is this why the issue of Lutsenko´s dismissal arose?

V. H. Yes. Clearly the police are being closely involved in the election process. It came down to the police organizing raids of a state-owned enterprise by covering the backs of special forces that stormed the printing house.

 Will Maidan-2 be possible if the gap between the presidential candidates is negligible?

V. H. No, this won´t happen. Who will go to Maidan this time? Those who came out to the country´s central square the last time had hope that things would change after Yushchenko´s victory. Indeed, the people were fired up by this idea. Let´s be honest, Yushchenko and his supporting team have Maidan to thank for the victory, not the actual voting results. Today, I do not see any reasons for people to believe her and go to a new Maidan. No, there will be no new Maidan.

 What about a violent scenario of the turn of events or protracted court trials when the term of office of the current president will be de facto extended?

V. H. Such a possibility cannot be ruled out. I think the elections to local councils will be postponed from spring to autumn and presume the presidential inauguration will take place no earlier than mid-April. The pressure will be intense and competition will be fierce.

Unfortunately, 2010 will not be a calm year - the lengthy war began in 2004 might end by mid-2011 with the help of God. If only we could avoid extremes and the use of force.

 This is totally beneficial for Yushchhenko, who will in the meantime continue to rule the country…

V. H. President Yushchenko, who as a result will automatically continue to fulfill his functions, will appear as a usurper appointed by the "black colonels" against the will of the people. His task as a president and as the guarantor of the Constitution will be to make his best effort to complete the democratic process of the elections and preserve his image and prospects for furthering his political career.

MP Svyatoslav Oliynyk (BYT) speaks about his fears, the possibility of election fraud and nonrecognition of the results of the second round of the presidential race

Photo: UNIAN

To what extent is vote rigging possible in the second round of the elections?

S. O. It is possible, though voting from home will be minimized. There is very poor control over this process. Just imagine two people from a polling station visit people at home and then return with a box full of ballots. At the village or city block level, scheming with ballot boxes is totally possible. This is precisely what the dispute we are currently observing is all about on a nationwide scale. A mere written statement of a voter gives them the right to vote from home. Naturally, this could end up being a very long list. I checked out polling stations in Synelnykiv County in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, where 28% of residents voted from home. It is precisely these figures that can make a difference in the voting results, which is why they should not be trusted. Such a possibility will be minimized since there will be equal representation in the election commissions. And this is why on January 28 the Party of Regions tried to push through a bill calling to withdraw the notion of a quorum in election commissions altogether.

 You said that voting on Lutsenko would show which side the parliament is inclined to take. Lutsenko was dismissed as a minister, but remained acting minister and was appointed first deputy minister. To what extent is he legitimate?

S. O. In my opinion, the results of voting on Lutsenko apply to Lytvyn more than they do to Lutsenko. It is glaringly obvious that without the votes of the Lytvyn faction, the Regions would not fire the minister. The Lytvyn Bloc, which is a member of the coalition, basically moved under the banners of Yanukovych on an openly political issue. I believe this means that Lytvyn has lost his autonomy and political independence. This may herald the end of his political career as his next step will be to dissolve into the Party of Regions. It is quite possible that for Lytvyn the results of the first round of the elections have relegated yet another great politician to the dustbin of political history right before our eyes.

As for Lutsenko’s legitimacy, he retained for himself management of the ministry, at least until the second round of the presidential elections. In reality, the central executive power in its present form will exist only until the results of the presidential elections are announced. After that, everything will radically change regardless of the results.

 Representatives of the PoR accuse Lutsenko of political bias and sympathy towards Tymoshenko and that the police essentially acted as an accomplice in the seizure of the Ukraina printing house, which was allegedly to be used for the unmonitored printing of additional voting ballots

S. O.  I don’t think election fraud is possible through the printing house.

 Let’s assume that additional voting ballots are printed. What should be done with them? They will be distributed on the basis of data in the voters’ registry anyway and then sent out to voting districts and commissions formed on the basis of a 50/50 quorum? What do you do with the additional ballots?

 Representatives of the PoR allege that the dissemination of additional ballots was planned so that the results of voting at polling stations in those regions where Yanukovych’s popularity is particularly high could be deemed null and void.

S. O. This is a fantasy. You can throw dollars around in the same fashion. I believe the interest in the printing house was more financial than anything. This outfit receives large state orders on a regular basis for the printing of passports. Apparently, the old director had his own scheme of where to channel money, while the new director had plans of doing this a different way. That’s the situation in a nutshell.

 There is talk about the possibility of a minimum gap between the results of the candidates. Is it possible that another Maidan or court trials are a solution to the problems the country’s leader faces?

S. O. Maidan as we saw it in 2004 will not repeat. I cannot rule out the possibility of two self-proclaimed presidents in the event of a minimum gap and contradicting data of exit polls, as well as another wave of chaos in the country. But that won’t be Maidan. This may be manifested the subordination on insubordination to the central bodies of power with some geographic overtones. Right now it is difficult to predict what will happen if one of the candidates refuses to acknowledge the election results.

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