Weekly.ua spoke with famous political scientist and head of the Horshenin Problem Management Institute Kost Bondarenko on the preliminary results of the election campaign, its peculiarities and forecasts for the second round
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| Photo: A. Gudzenko |
What are your first impressions of the election 2010? What are their peculiarities?
K. B. The peculiarities of this election campaign are on the surface. These are the first Ukrainian elections where the outside factor was not decisive and has not affected the will of Ukrainian citizens in any serious manner. Neither Russia, nor Europe, nor the U.S. had any impact on the ballot. Moreover, the global factors of the country’s geopolitical orientation or NATO has not dominated the programs of the candidates. There was no division of the country as it happened in the past two elections that were like "Vote for our candidate or the whole hell breaks lose." Candidates were no longer perceived as pure evil or pure good. Western Ukraine has ceased to be afraid of Yanukovych. He is perceived now rather as an anti-hero than a monster, as it was back in 2004. Tymoshenko is not perceived as a kind of evil in the Eastern Ukraine. And one more thing is that our citizens have finally learned not to trust politicians. If previously they could been enchanted or live in hope, this campaign has shown that people are going to vote knowing in advance that their choice will not change anything. Our polls show that 82% of citizens do not believe that the elections will be fair and that politicians are able to change something in their life, but they still come to the booths and cast their ballots.
Yes, the turnout was almost 67%, which is pretty high. After the first round the gap between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko is a little over 10% of the vote. Now everyone is interested, of course, what are the forecasts for the second round?
K. B. In fact, the gap of 10% says nothing about the outcome of the second round. The intrigue persists. Since no one can tell what mobilization resources Yanukovych and Tymoshenko really have. It is clear that the mobilization resources for Tymoshenko are broader than those of Yanukovych. Tymoshenko can gain the votes of her opponents. It will not be that easy for Yanukovych. Another thing is how Tymoshenko plays her hand. Tymoshenko bragged on the ballot day that she had already won. Such overoptimistic speeches are hardly appropriate in such a situation. This gap makes the two candidates work, work hard before the second round.
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| Photo: A. Gudzenko |
What about the votes of politicians who did not make it into the second round?
K. B. Votes can not be sold. Even if, say, tomorrow Yatsenyuk says, vote for that guy or that lady, this does not mean automatically that 7% of his votes will go to the basket of any of the candidates. There is a so-called principle or law of syrup: a glass of water and a cup of sugar, never make two glasses of syrup. Thus, 25% of the votes Tymoshenko plus 13% of the votes of Tihipko will never give Tymoshenko 38% of the vote. 30% at best.
Will those politicians, who did not get enough votes in the first round, be interested in the “next early” parliamentary elections?
K. B. Unfortunately, only a few people noticed the prospective of the early elections became real these days as they have never been before. January 17 is not just a date for elections. On that day Yushchenko’s right to dismiss parliament was restored. It is set down in the Constitution that during 6 months prior a national election the President is deprived of his right to dismiss the parliament. The legislatively defined election took place on January 17. The Constitution says nothing about dissolving the parliament after elections. Now Yushchenko has time to think about his political future. He garnered 5% of the vote. In case he decides to take part in the early parliamentary elections he will have opportunity to unite other political forces not represented in the VR and hammer a national-democratic camp.
There are several paths Yushchenko can take. Firstly, he could use the factor of actual absence of a ruling coalition. Secondly, only a few people took notice that in December 2008 the president did not recall his decree on dismissal of the parliament but suspended it, which means officially the decree is still in effect. Yushchenko can simply “revive” it. Moreover, it is worth remembering that during this election Yushchenko supported and continues to support Yanukovych. As his ally Yushchenko can assist in dissolution of the VR, because it will be hard for Yanukovych to sack Tymoshenko even after he becomes president. Under the Constitution only the parliament has the right to sack Tymoshenko. Yanukovych has no majority in the parliament. President Yushchenko can take the responsibility to dissolve the parliament. For this reason Yushchenko over the tree coming weeks can be a real nuisance for Tymoshenko, who is not interested in the new parliamentary elections. There is another thing. In case Tymoshenko becomes president, her legitimacy could be challenged if she would not be sworn the valid and legitimate VR. Yushchenko can play a really mean trick on the new president. Especially if that’s Tymoshenko.
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| Photo: A. Gudzenko |
Do Tymoshenko and Yanukovych happen to have common interest in uniting their efforts, like creating another broad coalition in order not to hold the new parliamentary elections?
K. B. That would be hard to do. Moreover, I see no reasons for them to unite to avoid early elections. This parliament completely satisfies Tymoshenko: she has her own majority, she runs her government which was created by this majority. If she becomes president, she will have all levers of power under her control, and she will be completely responsible for all processes in the country. On the contrary, Yanukovych’s personal results have improved recently, and they could add him extra votes at the next parliamentary elections. Which means there is no threat for him in this elections, he is in a win-win situation. The future elections give him hope to create his own majority in the parliament with all its possible effects and consequences.
Should we expect the next revolution in Maidan Nezalezhnosti or something like it if Tymoshenko and Yanukovuch come neck-to-neck in the second tour? Or is there a chance to solve the issue judicially?
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| Photo: A. Gudzenko |
K. B. Frankly speaking, I doubt it. Firstly, it is a very expensive affair – no political party can afford spending the sums equal to those spent on creation of Maidan 2004. Secondly, at that time people believed there were “good” and “bad” politicians. Those who took part in the mass rallies on the Maidan believed in changes for better and associated them with Yushchenko. Later their disappointment was so strong that they grew wiser and will hardly believe in messianism of the new candidates for the presidential office. They realized the words about wolves in sheep’s clothing from the Holy Scripture. I mean those politicians who came to power five years ago. People knew what their white-and-blue opponents were worth even before that. I do not believe someone will go to Maidan to defend politicians. People go to Maidan to defend their values. This is a campaign without values. It is all about total emptiness of rhetoric and mottos. People would like to be aware of changes in their lives, and instead of that they hear mutual accusations concerning pedophile deputies and posh dachas in Mizhhirya. The principle is “you are a fool – a fool yourself!” It is hard to realize everything could end with submission of 30,000 of reciprocal legal actions, which would bury the court according to each record and every petty violation.
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